Off to the Races

  • I find these early season posts harder Trevor Williams Jersey to create compared to off-season posts. Part of it may be the need to talk about the games occurring, yet still time trying to provide something worth reading. There are just a lot of ways to write about the improbability of Yuniesky Betancourts at-bat against Justin Verlander yesterday*. With that in mind, Im going to shamele sly steal a topic from Dave Camerons 2009 early season posts: Wins in the bank.

    Daves original post was accompanied by Sky Kalkman expanding on the topic by making use of it towards the CHONE standings through that point. The concept is explained by both, but Ill rephrase it here for originalitys sake. Say the Orioles begin 6-4. CHONE projected the Orioles to Artavis Scott Jersey win 75 games, or 46% of their games. That 60% win rate seems to be overachieving, but dont trip into the Gamblers Fallacy type of believing that the Orioles goes 3-7 sooner or later to even things out.

    No, instead you allow the Orioles credit for those earned wins while respecting the projections heading forward. 46% of 152 equates to 70 wins. Add those six they already racked up, and also the Orioles solid start improved their expected record with a whole game. Obviously, this is often applied at just about whenever through the season. Say the Rays go 35-20 and we have reason to expect them to be a 90 win team, then they would enhance their expected record by four games Nigel Harris Jersey . For the reason that division, for the reason that race, thats a huge swing.

    Its early and easy to get swept away in certain paranoia and hyperbole. But yeah, the outcomes matter, plus they can produce a difference.

    *I posed the i sue: How improbable was that?

    Betancourt has 2,473 career plate Nick Novak Jersey appearances. He has 32 home runs, which means 1.3% of his total plate appearances have ended in jogs okay, thats not true, lets say trots. Per Baseball-Reference, Betancourt has 141 plate appearances that visited a complete count. Thats, oh, 5.7%.

    On to Justin Verlander. Hes faced 3,580 batters throughout his career and has allowed 81 homers; or a shade over 2%. Hes visited a full count 500 times, or 14%.

    Multiply that out and the probability that all from it happens during one plate appearance is roughly: .0002%.